The Question I Carried

This essay was published in WBUR Cognoscenti on August 21, 2015

Stone Soup is a folktale about a wanderer who comes to town and proclaims he can make soup from a stone. He convinces townspeople to heat a cauldron of water and places his stone inside. Then he stirs expectations: ‘a slice of carrot’, ‘a pinch of sage’ or ‘a bit of meat’ would make the soup even tastier. He cajoles locals to toss in all sorts of ingredients, and by supper they share the soup all around. Everyone is amazed that such tasty soup comes from a stone. After the feast, the drifter pockets his stone and proceeds to the next town.

0820_bike_trip_cog-592x324I consider that fable as I bicycle across the 48 contiguous United States and ask the question, “How will we live tomorrow?” In the past thirteen weeks I’ve pedaled over 5000 miles and visited tewnty-one states. I have thousands more miles and a full turn of the seasons before I complete my circuitous route. My odyssey is rooted in a desire to explore this country in a visceral way; my question provides structure and purpose to my wanderings. It also stimulates a deeper level of conversation among those I meet.

Every day I engage at least one person I don’t know in conversation and ask them my question. Several times a week I visit companies and institutions to discuss tomorrow. So far, I’ve talked with organic farmers and fast food executives; hospital CEO’s and family constellation therapists; chiefs of police, IT programmers, inventors, professors, and minimum wage workers; Muslims, Catholics, Seventh-Day Adventists, Mormons, Jews; and immigrants from Lebanon, Somalia, India, Norway, and Cambodia.

Some people respond to ‘How will we live tomorrow?’ by describing what they’ll do twenty-four hours hence; others talk about colonizing distant planets. Many respond from a global perspective, others answer in the first person singular. Quite a few rephrase the question to how should we live, or how they hope to live tomorrow. One man, a Navy veteran who offered me lodging for the night, told me my question was too broad and diffuse. Then the next morning he said, “I’ve been thinking about your question: We will live tomorrow in the memories of those who love us.” Hardly a standard military response.

My project is inherently unscientific. I am a slow slice of space and time cutting through our land, haphazardly hitting and missing people and events. Still, a guy on a bicycle with two saddlebags and a question learns quickly that people are kind and good. I’ve suffered two mechanical failures and one serious tumble. Each time strangers came to my aid, offering transportation and iodine. I originally intended to stay in local motels, yet half the time strangers who’ve heard of my adventure invite me into their homes, make me supper, give me a bed, cook me breakfast, and send me on my way. All I offer in exchange are stories of the road and my question. Yet we both find it a satisfactory exchange.

People hail me down to give me cold water, buy my lunch, offer me money, and give me fresh produce. I turn money away, but I’ve learned to accept food and drink as tangible ways for people to participate in my adventure. As one staid businessman said, “You’re living the dream, man. You’ve got to let others join in.” More then stuff, I appreciate how people display their concern for my quest and my safety. Nuns give me blessings; Buddhists give me Karma; Native Americans give me talismans. Evangelicals pulled me into a prayer circle in a McDonald’s. As a tiny yellow-clad creature crawling across a continent abuzz with hard steel vehicles, I am grateful for all protection.

Loveland-Pass-592x444On my longest day so far, crossing the Continental Divide in Colorado, a seasoned cyclist overtook me outside of Denver. I gave Mark my card and asked him my question. He said, “I’ve got lots of ideas for tomorrow, but today I’m looking after you.” Mark accompanied me for eleven-hours for the seventy-mile climb to Loveland Pass. Near the top he said, “You may be the only man who ever topped Loveland on a heavy steel bike with saddle bags and tennis shoes. You are one weird cyclist.” Then he rolled back east while I continued west.

I could end my odyssey today and consider it a success; I have countered my concerns about our vast country and its myriad problems with examples of abundant generosity. But I can’t stop yet. I have many more miles to pedal, states to visit, and people to meet. In every town, I ask my question, people toss their ideas into the mix, and savor our conversation. Then we part, like the stone soup vagrant and the townsfolk, mutually satisfied.

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Responses – How will we live tomorrow?

How will we live tomorrow?

“The hardest thing remains how people are the same and different. Why do whites think cops are fine while blacks don’t? We have different experiences with them. Will our technology bring us a broader view or will we be overwhelmed and shot down? Time will tell.”

Al, Seattle Times reader, Revena, WA

How will we live tomorrow?

“I try to recycle as mush as I can. I bring cloth bags to the grocery store. I try to support local businesses, even though they won’t hire me because of my disability.”

Jennifer, Hostess at McDonald’s, Monroe, WA

How will we live tomorrow?

Hadj“It is hard to predict the future, but we know there will be change. People tomorrow will live very far from each other. We will colonize other planets like earth and spread over the entire universe. Everything will be robotic. The human being will not be doing much. Humans are idiots; computers will not make mistakes. It will be a digitized, robotic world. We will live between zero and one. Now we are impatient, waiting for this digital world. I ask my customers, ‘What will this place be fifty years from now?’ It has been here more than fifty years, the same, but it will not be here fifty years from now.”

Hadj Benzerrouki, Owner, Bayou on 1st Restaurant, Seattle, WA

How will we live tomorrow?

“Very poorly. The current political climate is incapable of change. It is unsustainable. I’m a city kid from Chicago. I come out here to the country and it is so poor. There is no access to jobs or transportation. We need a sustainable public transportation system. We need to address density. China, Hong Kong, those places understand that we have to live more densely.”

Dan Labovitch, Building Inspector, Snohomish County WA

Dan lives in a secluded single-family house on several acres of land.

How will we live tomorrow?

“I’m 62 years old. I’ve been driving this route for 33 years. I could retire any day. But then I’d just be home and do chores. I like to work.”

Glen, UPS driver on Vauchon Island, WA

UPS has four trucks that serve Vauchon Island every day, ten during the Christmas season. One in nine trucks in the US is a UPS truck; over 1.5 million vehicles.

How will we live tomorrow?

“I am a teacher and school starts on Tuesday. This was my summer project so I decided ‘today is the day.’”

Aubrey, hiker, Beacon Hill, WA

Aubrey walked from Seattle to Tacoma via Vauchon Island in one day.

How will we live tomorrow?

“Every day is a surprise… Family is important. You have to treasure those close to you.”

Eleanor Griego, high school student, Monroe, WA

How will we live tomorrow?

Melinda“I guess as I live this moment. These words are borrowed and from my Uncle Ron but they are profoundly inspirational to me:

“I entered this beautiful day with a thought: ‘The joy of living is having a thrust to assist others jump higher, run faster, be more, live a fuller, free’r, maximized life than I can ever have for myself… “

Melinda Bourgette, mother, Seattle, WA

How will we live tomorrow?

“I will live as I do today. I’ve lived in Seattle for 25 years. I like Seattle very much. I am a diabetic. I am healthy because I don’t drink or smoke or put any bad things in my body. No French fries. I have a garden behind my house. I grow all my own produce. I have forty chickens and always have fresh eggs.. I give some to my friends. I work two jobs. I love Seattle. It’s a city but people take time to talk, to be nice. I don’t have any family left in Veracruz; my daughter is in high school here. This is where I live.”

Oscar, Mexican immigrant, Seattle, WA

How will we live tomorrow?

“I would like to think we will bicycle more.”

Lucy Williams, warmshowers host, Seattle, WA

How will we live tomorrow?

“I will resist getting an iWatch. I was in a group of five people the other day, and was the only one without an iWatch.”

Owen, Capital Hill resident, Seattle, WA

How will we live tomorrow?

“I made a U.S.A. Bicycle Perimeter trip back in 1978-79. Started and finished in Seattle, the center of all bicycling at that time. Found Americans to be generous, kind, loving and wanting to share their life stories and concern for the future. In travelling around the USA, I saw hope, optimism and a great future for America. And, today, I can truly verify the optimism and hope through the many developments and accomplishments over these past 37 years. I still have great hope for the future. Our country is amazing. The people are amazing. This has been exemplified time after time. We live in a country of hope, kindness and giving – and where anyone can achieve, regardless of any boundaries set by individuals or organizations. America offers great hope for the world. My U.S. Perimeter trip proved that to me and so has the past 37 years!”

Richard J. DeBernardis, U.S. Perimeter Bicyclist – 12,092 Miles in 180 days, 1979-82 Guinness World Record Holder, Tucson, AZ

How will we live tomorrow?

“Hopefully, better. If you think about history and the path civilization has taken, we have gotten better. The grand optimist in me thinks we will learn how to fix the world. The grand pessimist in me says people will push their individual needs against the greater good.”

Tymer, customer experience specialist, Seattle, WA

How will we live tomorrow?

“My wife and I are former high school teachers who left our careers behind to pursue a simpler existence. What we’ve discovered is life rather than making a living in the current living arrangement of the industrial model.

“I co-host a radio program called, Nature Bats Last. Your question is really the basis of our program. We try and answer it every week with a variety of guests and commentators. After a year of listening to folks address this very question and after four years removed from making a living I’ve discovered that my answer is constantly evolving. There is a constant thread however. Tomorrow is where most of us live. We also live in yesterday. Very few live today. As a result the consequences are enormous. Tomorrow is our predicament as we continue to throw solutions at it today. There of course are no solutions to a predicament so we will continue to grind our way in a living arrangement that we believe is solution based when it turns out that it’s simply the predicament we find ourselves in. We fail to see the pattern because we are unaware a pattern even exists. So not much will change as we continue to repeat the story we tell ourselves about ourselves. The story of course, is our culture is humanity rather than just a culture within it. It’s a belief that this world is here to serve us. It’s a narrative that assures us that this is the only way to live and that we will be here forever. Finally it’s bad math. Infinite growth on a finite planet is math even a second grader can see as flawed. Chase A Different Carrot because in the end Nature Bats Last.”

Mike Sliwa, Nature Bats Last PRN radio host, Gila, NM

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Trip Log – Day 115 – Seattle, WA to Dupont, WA

Screen Shot 2015-08-29 at 1.34.00 PMAugust 28, 2015 – Partly sunny, 65 degrees

Miles Today: 50

Miles to Date: 6,276

States to Date: 22

 IMG_3730Much as I enjoyed Seattle, it felt great to climb on Surly, pedal down to the waterfront, weave through the container port, cross over the West Seattle Bridge, and log some distance. Five low mileage days made me antsy. Even though today’s route wasn’t difficult, it was more than mere commuting.

 

IMG_3731I climbed through West Seattle and descended to the Vachon Island ferry port. Ferries are an integral part of Seattle’s transportation infrastructure. Still, I was surprised how many people and vehicles took the twenty-minute ride midmorning. Crossing Puget Sound with ferries, pleasure boats and freighters all in view, I recalled how water used to connect us. Before railroads, before roads, rivers and bays were our thoroughfares.

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Now, land connections dominate and water connections are weak bonds. Vachon Island is a separate world a mere two miles from the City of Seattle. It reminded me of Cape Ann in Massachusetts – varied terrain with lush greenery, well-kept vintage houses and a quaint scale. The grocery store where I stopped at noon was crowded and inefficient but no one seemed dismayed or rushed. Island time exists wherever water surrounds us, even if we’re only 15 miles from Amazon headquarters.

IMG_3737The ride after lunch only got better. Sun streaked through tall trees and illuminated mounds of fern and moss. I descended into the village of Burton. Magnolia Beach opened before me, an arc of fine sand beach and frame cottages. Seagulls lofted above. The sweet scent of salt air rushed my nostrils. All at once I was back home. Then it struck me. How far I’ve come. Until that moment my journey from Cambridge to Seattle had been measured in time and distance. A single jolt of sea air clarified my emotional distance. All the months I’ve traversed farms, prairie and mountains I never thought about the sea. But one waft from the opposite coast made my heart pulse a homesick beat. The world is not just round in shape. Memories retrieved mark the cycle of our growth. Like rings of a tree. Or seagull squawks that echo true on either coast.

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IMG_3739 imagesI took a second ferry from Vachon to Tacoma, a short ride full of chatty passengers. The mainland greeted me with a great beer sign and blocks of amusingly tacky houses. Tacoma must have boomed when the bi-level was king, board and batten siding in vogue, and contrasting paint motifs all the rage. Baby blue with chocolate brown. Lemon with rust. Each house, identical to the next, screaming to be unique.

IMG_3740I passed the Tacoma Narrows Bridge, sight of one of the most famous civil engineering disasters of our era. Not the bridge I saw, which stands firm, but the one that wobbled in a 1940 gale and came crashing down. Beyond the bridge, I rode for miles along the bay. Hills, mountains, and sky all muted against the overhead sky. It started to rain – just barely. Puget Sound is like Ireland. Rain enhances the place.

IMG_3747I arrived in DuPont, where I will spend a few days with my niece and her family. When I stay with warmshowers hosts, I typically leave a calling card and a box of Altoids as gesture of appreciation. But my nieces rank flowers. I love riding with a bouquet popping out of my backside, proclaiming to everyone that, though I travel light, I still have space for something as ethereal as fresh flowers.

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Profile Response: Utah County Emergency Preparedness Provo, UT

HWWLT Logo on yellowHow do we prepare for the unpredictable and the unknown? That is what emergency preparedness planners do every day. They study past disasters to understand how earthquakes, tornadoes and floods affected us in the past. They evaluate how well we responded. They analyze how we can improve and even simulate disaster scenarios. They can never know for certain what will happen tomorrow or how we will respond to it. So they model potential disasters and create plans to minimize their impact. These are people who live my question.

I met with five people from Utah County whose job includes preparing us for future emergencies: Chris Blinzinger, Emergency Coordinator City of Provo; Ron Tobler, Emergency Coordinator Utah County Health Department; Jan Rogers, Utah County Medical/Surgical Coordinator; Marilyn Watts, Utah County Medical Rescue Commissioner; and Joanne Larsen, Emergency Manager for the City of Orem.

images-2Chris described the primary objective of emergency preparedness. “How are we going to ensure continuity of our community in the event of disaster – continuity of individual health, essentials services, and government? We do it through partnerships of existing community resources. The governmental representatives coordinate NGO’s, the military, and faith based organizations.”

At one level, discussing emergency preparedness in Utah doesn’t make much sense. Utah doesn’t experience hurricanes, tornadoes, or even many earthquakes. Only Wyoming has fewer disasters within our United States. The biggest public health issue is an increased level of lung cancer due to radon and the ramifications of having a very young population (36% of people in Utah Country are under 18). However, Jan reminded us how Utah’s Mormon founders placed a high priority on preparing for the unknown. “Our grandfathers were really prepared. They were driven from their homes, came here, and built Utah from nothing. They chose the beehive as our state symbol – cooperation and industry. They handed this tradition down to us.”

images-1Mock simulations of disaster events are often used to test emergency preparedness plans. Last March Utah County ran a ‘plane down’ simulation that modeled a mass casualty incident with police, fire departments, and hospitals. They’ve also run earthquake exercises. An alternative approach is to use actual events to test strategies. “We model our evacuation plans on the flows we observe from mass events. 500,000 people attend Provo’s Freedom Fest. Sixty thousand people exit the stadium after every BYU football game. These are excellent simulations of mass movement, which is an important part of emergency planning. We also learned a lot from the 2002 Salt Lake Olympics, which was a logistical feat.”

Funding and maintaining emergency preparedness staff is an ongoing challenge: they are not seen as essential until an emergency occurs. Chris and Joanne are the only two full-time emergency preparedness staff among all the cities in the county. The three country officials are all federally funded, and federal funding varies with the country’s mood. As Marilyn put it, “Money flows when anthrax or Ebola are in the news. Then we forget and the funding disappears.”

imgresBy definition, emergency preparedness means responding to unusual conditions. But it can also be a catalyst for community building. Jan described a coalition of hospitals, who often compete for patients and dollars, which works together in mass casualty situations. Joanne described a citizen acounting program in Orem that strives to account for each of the city’s 100,000 residents, in person, within 2-1/2 hours of an emergency. It’s essentially a pyramid scheme of neighborhood groups, with captains responsible for a small number of people. In the event of an emergency, they will congregate (often at the location of the weakest link, the elderly or infirm), send a runner to the next size group up the chain, and continue in succeeding levels until a full accounting for everyone is made.

“The program began in Bishop, a small town in Utah County. Scaling it to Orem is a challenge, but if it can happen anywhere, it can happen here. The LDS (Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-day Saints) community is very large in Orem, well organized, and behind our effort. They are committed to making it a success.” If the model succeeds in Orem, it could be applied to communities even without the inherent cohesion the Mormon’s provide.

How will we live tomorrow?

IMG_3157“I get up in the morning and put one foot in front of the other.” – Joanne

 

 

“We are on a trajectory. We are going to keep doing what we have done. We have to help people realize that we are dependent on each person in the community. It is hard to get people to commit to things that may never happen. Each individual has to put energy into an unknown activity.” – Marilyn

“We will start small, take care of our family and neighbors and move out from there.” – Jan

IMG_3158“Life is meant to be lived. I am always in search of the next adventure. We get skewed, as emergency management personnel; into thinking that everything can go wrong. But mostly the bad things don’t happen. I am healthy and looking forward to adventure.” – Chris

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Cycling the U.S with a question: How will we live tomorrow?

HWWLT Logo on yellowThis opinion essay was published in The Seattle Times on Thursday August 27, 2015.

I am cycling toward Seattle at ten miles per hour, fueled by 5,000 calories a day and a question. Since May, I’ve logged 6,000 miles, traversed 22 states, and asked hundreds of individuals, organizations and companies, “How will we live tomorrow?”

Seattle is a key terminus for many cross-country cyclists. More than half of the riders I’ve met start or end here. For me, Seattle is a turning point, the place I stop moving west and start heading south. Seattle marks only the third point in my objective to pedal and pose my question in the 48 contiguous states. Still, reaching the upper left corner on the map is a significant landmark in my journey.

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I undertook this adventure because I love to cycle and wanted to see America at an intimate scale. More importantly, I am concerned about the negative tone of our national conversation. I’ve no confidence the 2016 election cycle will rise above partisan discord to generate the thoughtful debate we deserve. So I decided to generate my own discussions, one on one, with people I meet riding a bicycle.

A guy on a bike is like a woman in pearls: my accessory earns me special attention. I supposed that people would be inclined to talk to a cyclist; I underestimated that by a wide margin. People love to talk to a guy on a bike. They seek him out. They open up. The bike sets me apart, and triggers unconstrained responses to my question.

imagesI appreciate strangers who engage in lively discussion, but I marvel at the private audiences I’ve earned. I’ve discussed tomorrow with Chiefs of Police, scientists, cattlemen, futurists, oilmen, shaman, museum directors, farmers, and executives. I’m not a credentialed journalist, just a good listener in yellow spandex. Sometimes I ask my interviewees why they offer me their time. To a person, their answer is, “because you’re on a bike.”

Some people respond to ‘How will we live tomorrow?’ by describing their plans twenty-four hours hence; others talk of space travel. Many respond from a global perspective, others answer in the first person singular. Many rephrase the question to how should we live, or how they hope to live tomorrow. One man, a Navy veteran who put me up overnight, told me my question was too broad and diffuse. But the next morning he said, “I’ve been thinking about your question: We will live tomorrow in the memories of those who love us.”

Retirees give me cold water along the road, truck drivers buy me lunch, mechanics offer me money, and gardeners give me produce. I turn down money, but I’ve learned to accept food and drink. As one collared businessman said, “You’re living the dream, man. You’ve got to let others join in.” Strangers invite me into their homes, make me supper, give me a bed, and cook me breakfast. More then stuff, I appreciate people’s concern for my safety. Nuns give me blessings; Buddhists give me Karma; Native Americans give me talismans. Evangelicals pulled me into a prayer circle in a McDonald’s. As a tiny creature crawling across this huge continent, I’m grateful for all protection.

I could return to Massachusetts after I reach Seattle – most transcontinental cyclists are one-way travelers – and count my journey a success. Not that I’ve solved our nations’ problems. Rather, I’ve countered my worries with example upon example of personal generosity.

imgres-1But I won’t dip my tire in Puget Sound and head home. After Seattle, I want to ask my question in San Francisco and Fresno, El Paso and Tampa. Everyday brings fresh responses and fresh energy. And often, a savvy local exposes the real purpose of my inquiry. “You know, the answers aren’t all that important. The important thing is asking the question.”

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Trip Log – Day 114 – Seattle, WA

Bothell to SeattleAugust 27, 2015 – Sunny, 80 degrees

Miles Today: 5

Miles to Date: 6,226

States to Date: 22

I started the day with a quiet visit to Steven Holl’s chapel at Seattle University, a contemporary building with many references to LeCorbusier’s Chapel at Ronchamp.

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I quit that solitude for the frenzy of Rem Koolhaus’s magnificent Seattle Public Library, where I had two interviews about tomorrow.

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One of the cyclists I met on my way to Seattle told me, “Being a cyclist is as close to being a celebrity as I’ll ever get. Everyone wants to talk with me.” I had one of those celebrity moments as I left the library and a passerby recognized me as the author of today’s op ed in The Seattle Times. Like actual celebrity, it was both gratifying and creepy. I didn’t actually see the piece until late afternoon. After lunch at the Pike Market, I returned to my favorite Seattle haunt, Elliott Bay Book Company, for a writing break. The hyper-skinny Seattle cafe habitués bemoaned summer on this sunny, perfect day.

No time for fame to go to the head of a guy who pedals for a living. Tomorrow I quit Seattle and head south.

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Trip Log – Day 113 – Seattle, WA

Bothell to SeattleAugust 26, 2015 – Sunny, 65 degrees

Miles Today: 14

Miles to Date: 6,221

States to Date: 22

IMG_3701I woke up to a Seattle panorama this morning. My host said, “Lots of people in Seattle have good views.”  The fact that its shared does not distract from its magnificence.

Seattle is a joy in every respect. It’s the first city I’ve been in that treats cycling as a legitimate form of transportation. The bike routes are well marked and connect places of work as well as places to play. Bike lanes are robust and vehicle drivers treat cyclists as equal participants on the pavement.

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Seattle is also growing – fast. I don’t know if the city invented the Lego style of mid-rise condo development with boxy pop-outs of varied cutouts and materials, flat roofs, and angular surfaces, but they are everywhere, and more are under construction.

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I had a series of interesting interviews today that took me to several different neighborhoods: Atlantic, Belltown, North Queen Anne, and Capitol Hill. My routes went through Seattle University, past the Gates Foundation Building (very elegant) and Gehry’s Experience Music Project (everything but elegant). Thank goodness for my granny gears – the gradient of many Seattle streets is steeper than any US Highway.

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My warmshowers hosts were a delight. They topped off a great dinner with molten chocolate cake that was so rich I had a difficult time getting to sleep. Or maybe it was because I only rode 14 miles. Or maybe it was because I am a city guy at heart, excited by the pulse of this place.

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Profile Response: Pam and Steve Williams, Steamboat Springs, CO

HWWLT Logo on yellowPam and Steve Williams have tied themselves to the land. They own and operate Glas Deffryn Ranch, a 200-acre specialty operation outside of Steamboat Springs where they raise Scottish Highland cattle. Although their ranch requires daily work, its hold on them is loose enough to enjoy retirement. “We never miss a day of powder. We have a parking space and locker at Steamboat. It’s thirty-five minutes from our home to the gondola.”

Steve had a career as a petroleum engineer for Amoco, Pam taught high school biology for 28 years. They are inquisitive, fix-it folks who thrive in retirement by having a small business that requires their attention and ingenuity. They take their time. First bought the ranch, built a barn, and then a loft house,. They recently moved into their permanent house full of quirky, exquisite detail. There are still finishing touches to be done, and they will get to them in time.

IMG_3020Pam and Steve are long-time cyclists. Their latest assistant is a motor-assist off-road cycle. Steve adds a trailer to and pedals it all over the ranch and triggers the motor on uphills. They save money and energy over driving their pick-up on ranch chores. The motor-assist bike has essentially replaced the horse.

IMG_3015Pam and Steve expanded their ranch by purchasing a scenic portion of the Yampa River that includes seven major bends. Then they put the whole property into permanent conservation. “We never had any children. Leaving this land untouched will be our legacy.”

IMG_3013Steve drove me around the ranch and introduced me to the cattle, all of who know him as if they were pets. Right now they have three bulls, kept in their own pasture, plus seven breeders, five two-year-olds, five one-year-olds, and a good assortment of calves. They’ll sell the two year olds at the end of the season. Each 1100-pound steer will yield about 400 pounds of grass-fed beef, but the ranch is a break-even operation. The economies of scale required for real profit would require a larger operation.

How will we live tomorrow?

IMG_3017“I will pinch myself and be thankful that I am here on the ranch. If I go tomorrow, it’s not the end of the world because I’ve had such a great time.” – Pam Williams

“I can’t imagine the technology of tomorrow, but the human condition will be the same. Bulls will be roaring and humming. People will be doing what we have done all over the west.” – Steve Williams

 

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Profile Response: John Bringenberg, President Colorado Solar Energy Industries Association, Denver, CO

HWWLT Logo on yellowSunny Colorado was one of the first states in the nation to embrace solar energy. The solar industry trade group COSEIA, Colorado Solar Energy Industries Association, is a leading advocate for solar energy. John Bringenberg is COSEIA’s current President.

 

“Back in 2004, Colorado was the first state to require utilities to incorporate renewable energy sources into their power mix. The original mandate was 20% of utility power from renewables by 2020; that percentage has been increased to 30%.” Thirty-five states now require some percentage of renewable energy in their power grid.

imgres-3Several years ago Colorado provided incentives for homeowners to install solar systems on their homes and the solar industry boomed. Those incentives have been reduced and the industry has slowed down. Meanwhile, other states offered generous incentives that triggered growth. The economics of installing solar are not favorable for most homeowners without subsidies. “In 2008 the Federal government set a 30% tax credit for solar installations. This has been a boon to our industry, but the credits are set to end in 2016. They may be extended; they may not. This is creating uncertainty.”

John explained that all of our energy sources are subsidized in some way. “Subsidies for fossil fuel are hidden: ethanol support is in farm subsidies; BP’s cleanup has been financed in large part by insurance claims; nuclear plants are all insured by the government. Subsidies for renewables are transparent. That 30% tax credit is an easy target in variable political winds.

imgres“The costs of installing solar are stable across the United States, while other energy sources have more variable costs.” In Colorado, as in most of the country, conventional electricity is 10 to 15 cents a kilowatt-hour, in California it is closer to 20 cents, and as high as 30 cents in Hawaii.

The solar industry seeks grid parity – creating a marketplace where the cost of solar is equal to or less than its conventional counterparts. “We are backwards about how we approach this. For most of history, wood was our primary fuel source. Then we added coal, gas, and oil. In each case we established costs based on extraction, ignoring the external costs on our health and environment.”
images-1There are many ways to work toward grid parity. COSEIA is pushing for CO2 reductions as a positive environmental move that will also enhance grid parity. “A carbon tax, or cap and trade mechanism will raise fossil fuel costs. People in Colorado embrace renewable energy. We have the will of the public here to create CO2 reductions.”

John clarified that all renewables are not created equal. Hydroelectric is cost effective if the right water conditions exist. Public utility companies like wind energy because it is easier to align with their mission to generate, transmit, and distribute. They buy wind for 4 cents a kwH, mark that up in transmission and distribution and still make money. However, solar is so decentralized, utilities don’t have a clear way to benefit. “If you are a public utility, solar works like the enemy. However, battery systems are going to be the disruptive technology that will change everything.” They will make solar a more consistent energy source, easier to transport and distribute. Right now, solar peaks (midday) don’t correspond with peak loads (early evening). Batteries can adjust that disconnect.

How will we live tomorrow?

imgres“When you think about energy, you have to think years, generations. Climate change happens so slowly and diffusely. We cannot say that the increased rainfall we are experiencing in Colorado this season is due to one particular factor.

“Reactions to climate change fall into three major categories: Technology will save us. We are already cooked; it is too late to do anything. We can affect it with technological help.

“The United States recently agreed to eliminate CO2 emissions in electricity generation by 2100. Many say that is too late, others say it cannot be done. I believe we have to discontinue generating electricity that creates CO2 by 2050, that it’s possible, and could help turn us around.

images-2“We are making progress in reducing our CO2 output, but we are still going to see a lot more warming. We should outlaw coal plants, but we are far from doing that. We have to get off coal now, use oil as a bridge for the next 25 years, and then rely on renewables to supplement whatever the next major energy source will be. I would like to say that we can meet our energy needs through renewables, but that is not realistic.

imgres-2Even with conservation, there simply isn’t enough land to create an energy system based on solar and wind without drastic changes in the way we live. Self-contained, neighborhood-scale nuclear reactors that are permanently planted where they provide energy and eventually decay are not a viable technology yet, but they are our best bet for the core of our long term energy needs.

“If we can’t do this by 2070 we will be living in a Mad Max world. That is only two generations away.

 

 

imgres-1“There is so much to do in that period. Wealthy nations will spend trillions on weather-related protections as the planet changes. None of that will forestall warming. We should be focusing on how to compensate developing nations to preserve their rain forests. There is evidence that CO2 at 350 ppm is dangerous for humans. We have been above 380 ppm for three years. The CO2 level reached 400 ppm every day in March of 2015. Our CO2 emissions have not stabilized. They have to stabilize before they can come down.”

 

 

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